China's manufacturing industry will continue to grow
According to the analysis article of the National Information Center, in 2009, due to the great changes in the domestic and international economic environment, the growth rate of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will inevitably be adjusted. However, the deepening adjustment of the domestic economic structure, the enhanced requirements for industrial technology upgrading, the acceleration of urbanization and the increase in the strength of the national policy to expand domestic demand will be the long-term factors to promote the development of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry, On the whole, the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry will still maintain a certain growth rate.
1. Economic structure upgrading and technological progress are the fundamental factors to promote the long-term and stable development of mechanical equipment manufacturing industry
For a long time to come, the adjustment of industrial structure and technological upgrading will be one of the main lines of China's national economic development. The adjustment of product structure, the improvement of production technology, the technical transformation of equipment and equipment, the development and use of automation and large-scale packaged equipment in various industries will all require the mechanical equipment industry to provide advanced and modern production equipment to improve the modernization level of the national economy, At the same time, the sustainable development strategy of the national economy puts forward the investment focus on the use of energy-saving and environment-friendly production equipment, which also requires the mechanical equipment industry to provide safer and more advanced production equipment. For example, power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials and many other industrial fields need more efficient, automated and clean production equipment in the construction of new projects to improve the scientific and technological content and added value of products. In addition, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products in transportation industries such as roads and transportation will also be greatly improved in promoting structural adjustment and industrial upgrading. Mechanical products with the characteristics of high efficiency, energy conservation, low pollution, intelligence, and complete set will gradually become the mainstream of the market. At the same time, the machinery industry itself needs a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing instruments for industrial upgrading and technical transformation. With the intensification of market competition and the acceleration of enterprise technology upgrading, the enterprise's investment in technological transformation will remain at a certain scale. At the same time, the national policy support will encourage enterprises to increase the investment intensity in new equipment, and the domestic demand for high-end machinery and equipment products will continue to increase. Therefore, the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the national economy will form a large demand for the machinery and equipment industry in a long period of time.
2. The rising trend of energy raw material prices will slow down, and the industry cost pressure will be eased
In 2008, the price of energy raw materials rose rapidly, which caused a certain cost pressure on the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth rate of the industry's economic benefits. However, as the overheated growth of the national economy is effectively curbed, and the international economic situation shows signs of slowing down due to the spread of the US financial crisis, the development of the world economy will slow down to a certain extent, and the growth rate of demand for energy and raw materials will also slow down, which will limit the rising trend of energy and raw material prices to a certain extent. At present, the price of crude oil in the international market has dropped rapidly from a high level, and the rise of steel and nonferrous metals has come to an end. Due to the growing concern about the future world economic growth, the price of energy raw materials will rise again in a short period of time, which will remain a small fluctuation within a certain period of time. On the whole, the cost conditions of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will not further increase, but will be reduced, It is beneficial for the industry to maintain a certain profit growth.
As an industry with relatively high technology content, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a strong tolerance to the rise in the price of energy and raw materials. Although the profit growth has dropped significantly since 2008, it still shows a good level of economic benefits. The growth rate and profitability of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry in the future will depend more on the level of added value of products and the speed of technological progress, which is an important basis for the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry to maintain stable growth in the face of volatile energy and raw material prices.
3. Rural economic development provides new market opportunities for agricultural equipment
In recent two years, the market demand for machinery products has become a new hotspot, and the growth rate of agricultural machinery has maintained a rapid growth rate. With the implementation of various preferential policies for agriculture, especially the increasing subsidies for agricultural materials, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase agricultural machinery has been improved and the sustainable development of agricultural machinery has been effectively promoted. After the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee, the state again increased subsidies for agricultural means of production, at the same time liberalized the circulation of rural land use rights, encouraged land to concentrate on large farmers, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the growth of demand for agricultural production machinery.
After years of efforts, the state has strengthened the transformation process of rural power grid. The improvement of rural power consumption has greatly promoted the farmers' demand for small agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made agricultural machinery develop rapidly. In the future, the adjustment of agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and the mechanization and modernization of agricultural production methods will also continue to increase, so as to improve agricultural production efficiency. In this process, higher and newer demands will be put forward for agricultural machinery and equipment. With the deepening of the reform of the rural economic system and the strengthening of the degree of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the level of mechanization in the production, storage, processing, transportation and other links of agricultural products needs to be constantly improved. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture, water-saving irrigation agriculture, etc. will accelerate their growth in economically developed areas of China, and the requirements for equipment will also be further improved.
4. Export of machinery products continued to grow
As a large country in the machinery industry, China still has great export potential for some machinery products with comparative advantages, such as small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium power construction machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products have large markets in the world. In particular, China has stepped up the implementation of the "going global strategy", encouraged enterprises to develop foreign project contracting and cooperation, and made great progress in developing economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a certain impact on the growth of the world economy, especially the economic growth of developed countries will face certain difficulties, the export markets of China's machinery products are mostly developing countries and emerging countries. These economies still have great development potential, and the demand for China's machinery products will still maintain a certain growth, It will also drive the export growth of China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to a certain level.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the western development strategy will drive the demand growth of mechanical products
With the steady progress of the Western Development Plan, the West to East Power Transmission Project and the West to East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment, power transmission and transformation equipment, and driven the growth of a large number of general machinery; The construction of key highways, railways, buildings, water conservancy, electric power, airports and other infrastructure projects in the west has provided new development opportunities for the production of engineering construction machinery and related professional equipment. Especially in the face of the impact of the world economic downturn on the domestic economy, the country will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce an investment stimulus plan totaling 4 trillion yuan, which will strongly drive the growth of domestic demand. It can be predicted that in the process of comprehensively promoting modernization, infrastructure investment and construction will be a long-term process, which will enable the domestic machinery and equipment industry to always be in a relatively favorable development environment.
In general, the demand for machinery and equipment will grow steadily for a long period of time in the future, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The demand for general products will decline, the situation of overcapacity will become more serious, and the demand for high-end products, technology modernization products and products in new fields will continue to rise.